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“The growth rate came out stronger than expected, with the help of supply-side factors such as output and a delayed pickup in private consumption of items such as cars. YOSHIMASA MARUYAMA, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SMBC NIKKO SECURITIES, TOKYO I think domestically there needs to be further policy to boost consumption because retail sales were a bit weak.” “But retail sales were a bit of a disappointment. In the third quarter, we’ll see more support from global demand, so China’s growth should actually improve further in the third and fourth quarter and for this year, we still think that 1.8% growth is possible.
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“The second quarter was mainly led by domestic easing of restrictions and the resumption of consumption and production in China. “We were looking for 3.5%, but the figure is better than market expectations. We think there will be perhaps one RRR cut and one MLF rate cut (in Q3), and that’s it, there could be no further cuts in Q4.” In monetary policy, the easing cycle is nearing the end. “Fiscal policy will still be supportive but the room for more easing is limited. “What matters now is how policy would respond… The market could start to think about whether the government would start to exit policy earlier than expected. “In general, the growth recovery is on track and seems to be accelerating in terms of year-on-year growth, beating market expectations. SHUANG DING, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR GREATER CHINA AND NORTH ASIA, STANDARD CHARTERED, HONG KONG Today’s GDP data, stronger than what we expected, implies an upside risk to this outlook, although this is tempered by the possibility of tighter macro policy.”
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“Our current forecast has GDP growing at about 6% y/y in H2, bringing growth to between 2% and 2.5% in 2020, followed by over 8% growth next year.
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Export orders have remained weak but given the resilience of China’s exports so far, we expect exports to pick up gradually along with the recovery of global demand. “We expect the upturn to continue in the second half, supported by improved sentiment after the successful containment of COVID-19 and significant fiscal and monetary policy easing. “The 3.2% y/y expansion of China’s GDP in the second quarter underscores the robust recovery that China’s economy is going through after the historic contraction of 6.8% y/y in the first quarter. LOUIS KUIJS, HEAD OF ASIA ECONOMICS, OXFORD ECONOMICS, HONG KONG Consumption may gradually recover in the third quarter, with big-ticket items like car sales already recovering in June.” “That impact seems more like a one-off, and China has managed to contain that outbreak and seems to be doing quite well. But it is not all bright spots, with retail sales below expectations which I think is partially due to the mini outbreak in Beijing.
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“The key driver has been net exports, not only from a goods perspective but from a service perspective as well.
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Given this new information, I think it’s a good chance China could try for 3% growth for the full year. “Frankly speaking, I think this was quite strong and much stronger than my expectations (of around 1%). TOMMY XIE, HEAD OF GREATER CHINA RESEARCH, OCBC BANK, SINGAPORE That cautiousness is something the market is looking at in terms of countries where the consumer plays a bigger role, so that’s obviously relevant for the U.S. “It’s very much a story of government stimulus-led recovery, which is very much focused on the industrial side. “While in general it’s fair to say that the numbers beat expectations, what the numbers also reveal is that we’re seeing that the China consumer remains behind in terms of the recovery story.” COMMENTARY: RODRIGO CATRIL, FX STRATEGIST, NAB, SYDNEY Asian equities started Thursday with mild losses and remained lower after the release of China data.